A New Framework for CIOs
Private market reported NAVs significantly understate true economic risk because reported valuations are smoothed, lagged, and mechanically slow-moving.
This article introduces an intuitive, data-driven framework — powered by Altius’s analytics and proprietary data — to reveal the real equity, rate, and credit exposures embedded in private-equity and private-credit portfolios.
Through a simple but powerful desmoothing model, we show how observed betas drastically understate long-run risk, and we illustrate the differences using Altius-standardized factors: market, PE proxy, VIX, long interest rates, credit-spreads, and alpha charts. The model results have many useful applications from risk management to cash flow forecasting.
The next distribution may already be visible in the NAV. Analyzing 3,300+ funds, this research shows how the gap between desmoothed and reported NAVs can help LPs forecast future private equity distributions.
View whitepaperThis whitepaper offers clear, practical strategies to reduce digital exposure, strengthen operational resilience, and safeguard the workflows that keep your investment office running smoothly.
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Start with the questions you need to answer and the workflows you want to improve. See how Altius could fit your investment office.
